Blame it on economic theory not matching reality, groupthink among forecasters, or political partisanship by opponents of the Biden administration. However, a year ago, much of the U.S. was convinced the country was in a recession or would be soon. The first two quarters of 2022 saw U.S. economic output contract at a 1.6% annual rate from January through March and 0.6% from April through June. Inflation was spiking toward a four-decade high, housing investment had been falling sharply, and the Fed’s concerted campaign to slow growth and tame inflation was widely expected to wreck a long expansion that had … Continue reading Fed Economists See Soft Landing More Likely Than Recession